大部分制裁在今年解除了,但预计的大量国外投资却还未到来。然而,自核协议签署以来,这个进程慢到令人沮丧。
欧洲亚洲的贸易代表团一波接着一波,德黑兰的酒店已经人满为患。代表团们敏锐地发现一个拥有8000万消费者同时也是世界上第18大经济体的国家。但是这些优势并没有促成更多的合作协议达成,更多投资到位。
形成伊朗国内和国外僵局的原因有很多,以下列出了7个最大的问题
1.银行与SWIFT失联
这是最大的问题,国际公司想要在伊朗创办或者同企业合作需要在伊朗用指定银行进行转账和收汇款。伊朗的银行已经被允许重新加入国际银行信息系统-SWIFT。但还有其他障碍的存在使得跨境转账依旧困难。
这个问题在制裁期间就埋下了祸根。大型银行受到美国政府禁令的威胁,保证在数年内不与伊朗重新接触。如果他们违反约定轻则面临巨额罚款,重者则会失去在美国的经营许可。结果就是银行不敢在制裁解除后的新机遇下抢占伊朗先机。英国对伊朗贸易特使拉蒙特勋爵表示,英国的银行因为怕被美国抓到和伊朗合作而“吓坏了”。
2.某些领域制裁仍旧存在
核制裁虽然在一月已经解除,但禁运和贸易限制在伊朗依旧存在。在某些领域一些制裁仍未解除,旨在惩罚这个国家侵犯人权和为恐怖主义提供资金支持。一些与核相关的制裁在未来几年仍会存在。
美国正在实行的制裁是最容易出问题的。伊朗市场对于大多数美国市民和公司,包括美国银行在内都是限制的,只有少数除外。对于世界上的其他国家来说这意味着他们不能涉及美元交易,如果公司内有美国员工必须确保他们不涉及任何伊朗相关交易。
3.伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队
伊朗革命卫队是一个军事组织但在伊朗经济中也举足轻重,它涉及伊朗各个行业,从电信、运输、设计到建筑。它也依旧被制裁牢牢限制。多年来它已经擅长掩饰自己在企业中的参与。
这对于一家国际公司来说,判断他所合作的公司是不是伊斯兰革命卫队的生意十分困难。即使是十分彻底地尽职调查也可能很难发现革命卫队是否参与其中。这使得国际企业非常紧张。“当我和客户还有潜在的投资者交谈时,他们表示这是最大的问题之一”英国安理律所的合伙人Matt Townsend称。
4.腐败
伊朗在国际排名中的表现并不是非常好,腐败也不例外。在国际清廉指数排名中,167个国家伊朗位居第130名。德黑兰政府已发誓要解决这个问题,但在短时间内仍会存在。
“腐败确实是一个问题”复兴资本公司的全球首席经济学家Charles Robertson称“在未来五到十年内腐败问题将继续存在。”
5.下一届伊朗和美国的总统
美国和伊朗的总统选举对于正考虑在伊朗投资的企业来说都是一项政治风险。
就现阶段来看,鲁哈尼总统有望在明年赢得连任,这将会保证德黑兰的政治连续性,但华盛顿的情况也为投资者提出了几个问题。
大部分共和党总统候选人都发誓要撕毁核协议。然而特朗普却曾表示要严格执行核协议,令人意外。对于任何一位美国总统来说撤销国际社会支持的核协议并不是一件容易的事,但公司老板认为现在最好推迟任何在伊朗的主要投资,直到下一届白宫领导确认之后。
6.货币风险
伊朗是唯一一个拥有两种汇率的国家:官方和市场汇率。两种汇率间的差距在过去几年逐渐减小,但依然显著,官方汇率大概在3万里亚尔兑1美元,而市场汇率大概在37000里亚尔兑1美元。
如果你通过官方银行汇款,你就得使用官方汇率,相当于是多了20%的额外费用。政府承诺尽快减小两种汇率直接的差距。在这之前,一些公司更倾向于推迟正式投资的时间。
7.回到原点(Snapback)
一些公司最担心的是当伊朗未能履行核协议中规定时,整个核协议将会轰然坍塌。联合全面行动计划(JCPOA)中有一条“snapback”的规定,如果发现了德黑兰有违反核协议条款的行为,那么就算制裁已经解除也可以重新实施。
大多数观察者称这种情况发生的几率很低,但是仍需要考虑这个风险。“每个人都告诉我们,回到原点只是一个假设,但为什么要把它放进核协议里呢?”阿尔扬资本的高级管理合伙人Andreas Schweitzer问道。(也就是说虽然是假设但是还有可能发生)
本文转载自微信公众号：伊朗之家
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