*本文转载自公众号集智观察
SWOT被证明并不是有效的进行商业分析的妥当的方式，但是对于普通的读者来讲，进行简单的信息的对比以及对问题进行辨证的思考是一个直观的方式。我们本期针对2017年阿联酋1季度的几个侧面来简单罗列SWOT看看对于投资人来讲该注意些什么。
政治
优势
1.由于本国公民的高福利水平，其有较少的政治表达的诉求
2.国家管理者在全国拥有较高的支持力
3.国家对帮助本国公民在私人企业中就业，降低了国民的政治表达的意愿。
弱势
1.民主并不是一剂良药，但是如果长期缺乏民主的参与，对于政治稳定存在一定的风险。
2.现任总统哈里发与已故总统扎耶德同属于保守类型。并不会对宪政中存在一些问题进行改动。
3.权利的继承体系不是特别清晰，对于国家的长期稳定会有一定的担忧。
机会
1.阿联酋与海湾联合会成员关系保持密切并在经济和安全领域有广泛的合作。
2.阿联酋是欧佩克石油组织当中的典型鸽派。与西方的关系保持密切。
3.与伊朗的关系密切，特别是在霍尔木兹海峡中的部分岛屿的所有权争议达成一致后为长期稳定提供了基础。
威胁
1.与卡塔尔的纷争日益紧张。阿联酋被指责支持卡塔尔反对派，为两国的关系发展带来不确定因素。
2.外国劳工的艰苦居住条件经常会引发暴动和示威。由于外国劳工在人口比例中占据了一定的分量，对于国内的稳定是一个主要的威胁。
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经济
优势
1.阿联酋在本地区拥有非常强的多变贸易体系，吸引了大量地区资本的进入。
2.在经济中外国人在各个行业的各种领域都占有重要的地位。使国家的多样性得到充分体现。
3.阿联酋对于经济多元化的推动非常积极。降低了对于石油的依赖以和经济的脆弱性。
弱势
1.阿联酋的货币与美金挂钩，同时对于货币政策给予非常小的干预。使其处理通货膨胀的能力较弱。
2.阿联酋处与冲突频发的地区。因此其可能会被地区的任何一个事件影响。美国对地区军事力量的顾虑以及伊朗核能的野心都会影响到投资者对于投资的考虑。
3.国家财政收入继续会受到低油价的影响。
机会
1.国家在燃气，旅游，金融以及高科技产业的多元化的努力给了经济发展提供了一些支持。
2.由于国内和外国投资的驱动，旅游业和金融业的仍然会有较好的中期发展。
3.伊朗市场的不断变化，给阿联酋的转口贸易业务带来机会。
威胁
1.由于对水电费和农业的高额补贴以及落后的税收体系给阿联酋财政带来了大量赤字，同时低油价使得财政问题越发严重。
2.持续的低油价使的财政状况越发恶化。
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运营风险
优势
1.大量低收入的劳工供应以及用工政策上的少量限制带来的更便宜的用工成本。
2.高质量的公路建设以及卓越的航空网络带来物流运输业的蓬勃发展。
3.政府支出的增加带来许多不同的业务机会。
4.阿联酋与美国的亲密关系，使得在国家安全保障上收益匪浅。
弱势
1.科学和理工科毕业生数量太少无法满足市场对于人才的需求。
2.阿联酋的主要经济发展引擎阿布扎比和迪拜的竞争日趋同质化，在某些行业形成过度竞争。
3.由私营企业主导的自由市场缺失。阿联酋的主要项目和业务大都由政府主导来驱动。
4.艰苦的低收入工人的居住条件将导致犯罪率的高升。
机会
1.政府鼓励更多的妇女参加工作将在某些层度上缓解对于外国人的依赖。
2.铁路的发展将进一步提什运输效率并带来更多业务机会。
3.在国防领域的投入将带来更多的机会，特别在网络安全和防护领域的投资将带来更多的机会。
威胁
1.由于阿联酋本地人在公共单位的高福利和高收入。本地人并不愿意在私营企业工作。
2.由于海水淡化工厂的数量不能达到需求，缺水的状况在未来仍然是一个值得担心的问题。
3.财政收支的不平衡，在未来税率有提高的风险。
4.由于阿联酋与美国的关系密切，以及高度发展的旅游业。阿联酋对于恐怖主义是一个潜在目标。
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商业银行
优势
1.本地银行的流动性充盈。本地营商环境以及基础设施良好。监管制度相对到位。
2.阿联酋对外资银行的投资持续保持开放。除了迪拜的国际金融中心对外资银行开放，其他酋长国以及本地市场都对外资商业银行开放了一定的市场空间。
3.由于保险市场快速发展，商业银行与保险业的合作也非常深入，银行通过此业务能获取较好的收益。
弱势
1.银行放贷过于偏向地产行业。
2.受过良好银行业教育的从业人员不足。对于提高银行服务水平任然是个挑战。
3.对于阿联酋成为地区性借贷中心的能力仍然不明确。阿联酋商业银行对地区他国的非银行客户的贷款量增长十分缓慢。
4.迪拜的房地产市场趋于过热。
机会
1.本地商业银行对于政府的借贷存在大量机会。而且这类政府借贷业务大部分并不对外资银行开放。
2.部分本地国有企业的私有化进程仍然在继续，这给了商业银行以及部分投资银行的附属机构提供了机会。
威胁
1.本地银行在国际银行业务能力上较弱，因此在进行国际业务方面存在着明显的短板。
2.阿布扎比也热衷于将本身打造成金融中心。因此，未来将看到更多阿布扎比和迪拜之间的竞争。
3.未来持续低迷的油价仍然限制了银行业的发展。
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关于我们
集智咨询定期发布集智观察，深度解读阿联酋及本地区政策和商业动态。
集智咨询（GCS Consulting)在迪拜和上海设有办事处，是多个阿联酋自贸区的官方服务代理机构以及孵化器运营商，专长于公司注册、企业托管（物流、法务、会计、营销和金融等）、离岸公司等业务。
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