2020年5月，阿联酋迪拜商会出了一份调查报告，全面分析了疫情对阿联酋的经济影响以及迪拜商业机会。
1
疫情重创全球和海湾国家经济
>全球经济严重受挫
全球 PMI 综合产出指数 4 月跌至创纪录低点，商业活动和出口业务都急剧萎缩，预计疫情对世界经济的影响将大于2008-2009年的金融危机。
全球的商品价格指数暴跌，出口限制越来越多。截至5月初，有91个国家对口罩、药品、呼吸机和其他医疗设备实行了出口限制，国际贸易在短期内将迎来大洗牌。
国际航空业前景黯淡，40%的乘客表示，他们将等待6个月或更长时间才考虑乘坐国际航班出行。
>油价大跌导致海湾国家的财政收支难以平衡
受疫情影响，石油价格大跌，海湾各国政府在平衡财政预算方面将面临重大挑战，同时，该区域的封锁将会导致出口行业严重受挫。
>阿联酋的PMI指数和就业指数大跌，信贷增长5.3%
受疫情和油价下降的双重打击，阿联酋的PMI指数下跌惨重，4 月直接跌到了44.1。在大环境艰难的情况下，阿联酋的企业大面积裁员或者强迫员工无薪休假，导致就业指数“跌跌不休”，在经历了三月份的大跌之后，4月份才开始稳定下来。
受益于政府的经济刺激计划，阿联酋针对中小企业的贷款在3月份增加了5.3%，达到了934亿迪拉姆。
2
疫情对迪拜商业的影响
>实体倒闭潮即将来临
商会在4月16日至4月22日期间对各个行业的1228位CEO进行了调查。在调查样本中，将近四分之三的公司是小型企业且员工少于20人。在受访者中，超过三分之二的人认为在未来六个月内有倒闭的风险，27％的人表示他们将在下个月破产，而43％的人预计公司将在6个月内倒闭。
迪拜接受调查的餐厅和酒店，预计有一半将在下个月倒闭，约有74％的旅行社和旅游公司表示，他们预计在下个月倒闭，在交通、仓储和通讯行业，有30％的公司也预计在下个月倒闭。
酒店、旅游、金融、房地产和零售等行业几乎停滞不前，约95%的企业在2020第一节度的销售下降，大部分企业在2020年第二节度的日子仍不好过，因为营业额仍将继续下降（尤其是旅游业）。
与第一季度相比 ，旅游、房地产、酒店餐饮、批发和零售行业一半以上的公司，第二季的营业额将下降 75%以上。
>大部分公司没有疫情应急计划，裁员降薪是首选生存手段
由于业务量急剧下降，大部分小型公司要么直接关闭业务，要么裁掉员工或者强迫员工无薪休假。
除此之外，各路公司为了维持运转，开始频繁与客户接触以及在媒体上做品牌曝光，疫情也在倒逼大部分企业加强自身的产品实力和供应链的管理。
3
迪拜的新商机
>迪拜的经商环境正在变得越来愈好
受疫情影响，迪拜开始进入一个低通胀、低利率、低能耗、低租金的时代，同时，政府的费用也在不断降低、社会劳动力变得丰富，员工的生产效率也越来越高。
>潜在的商业机会
A，线上行业迎来高速增长。外卖、电子商务、远程医疗、远程法律、远程健身、虚拟游戏等行业开始井喷，拥有极大的发展前景。
B，抗疫日用品行业和医疗检查需求大涨，口罩、手套等产品在未来的一段时间内仍将继续热销，常规医疗检查也将变成香饽饽。
C，远程办公兴起，网络安全和远程工作解决方案开始受到重视，随着在线办公的常态化，居家办公用品行业也会引来一波小高潮。
本文资料源自迪拜商会报告
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