根据阿联酋主要经济学家的预测，阿联酋经济将在2021年中后期开始逐步恢复到疫情之前的水平，而要一直到2022年，其经济才能完全复苏。阿联酋的经济增长正常化将与全球经济和石油市场的命运密切相关。

实际上，（经济）复苏可能是非常缓慢的。这是因为阿联酋经济与其他主要发达和新兴市场经济高度交织。阿联酋在很大程度上依靠入境贸易和旅游业收入（ inbound trade and tourism revenue ）。

“从近期诸如中国和欧洲一些国家的宏观经济形势来看，趋势令人担忧。为了阻止病毒的进一步传播，全球现在变得极为谨慎。对“ U”型、甚至是最坏情况的“ L”型复苏的估计，开始进一步取代先前“V”型——表明经济迅速复苏——的乐观估计。” Century Financial首席投资官Vijay Valecha表示。

预计阿联酋的经济今年将收缩。根据国际货币基金组织（International Monetary Fund）的最新预测估计，2020年实际GDP增长率为-3.5％，而去年同期的增长率为1.5％。

对于阿联酋而言，2019年并不是其经济发展特别强劲的一年，实际国内生产总值仅增长1.7％。

“（阿联酋）很有可能恢复到这一水平，但仍将低于过去几年的平均增长率，即2％至3％的范围。要恢复到这些增长率，就可能需要国内和外部经济共同强劲发展。”阿联酋航空NBD执行副总裁、集团首席经济学家兼研究部主管Tim Fox说。

除了疫情外，还有其他不利因素会影响阿联酋经济，例如低油价等。然而，根据政府的合作伙伴Anita Yadav的说法，一系列持续的政府刺激措施、逐步的放宽封锁、即将在2021年举行的世博会等，最终都将帮助阿联酋经济在2021年底之前恢复到疫情之前的水平。

迄今为止，阿联酋中央银行已推出了相当于国内生产总值约18％的刺激措施。目前已宣布的价值1000亿迪拉姆的刺激计划中，大部分资金已指定用于中小企业和消费者。迪拜和阿布扎比等酋长国都宣布了单独的财政计划，阿联酋政府宣布对七个酋长国实施160亿迪拉姆刺激方案。业内消息人士称，目前，所有刺激计划的总规模已超过1200亿迪拉姆。

“这些措施在支持经济复苏方面将会大有帮助。展望未来，其他机构——例如免税区管理局（free zones authorities）——也可能会降低其成员的总体业务成本。迪拜自由区理事会已经宣布了一系列支持迪拜复苏的措施。Valecha建议说，其他酋长国的自由区也需要采取类似措施。

Anita Yadav给出了如下恢复GDP的建议——

  • 放宽外国投资者参与本地商业活动的规则；
  • 进一步放宽居住规则；
  • 鼓励私营部门更快增长。

“放宽居住规则（Easing residency laws），允许那些失业的人员继续留在阿联酋，将会减少人员流失。”

为了保护其外籍居民，阿联酋当局可能会考虑通过给予水电费和其他联邦费用折扣，从而来激励消费者。

“根据最新估计，阿联酋外籍人士可能会减少10％至15％。自疫情开始以来，阿联酋境内的印度人群体中，约有10％表示希望返回家园。” Valecha指出。

经济学家预计，阿联酋至少6到12个月的时间内，家庭支出将恢复正常。预计疫情之后的支出方式也会发生变化。Yadav认为：“出国假期和团体娱乐（ international holidays and group entertainment）的支出将减少，而科技支出（spending on technology ）将增加。”

在海外各需求（ overseas demand）开始正常化之前，阿联酋的国内需求将无法完全恢复。阿联酋经济的各个部门，例如贸易、旅游、房地产、娱乐休闲、酒店和制造业，严重依赖于国内和国外的持续联通（inbound and outbound flows）。

以下行业将率先复苏——

  • 技术
  • 卫生保健
  • 医药
  • 休闲娱乐
  • 能源

这些行业将面临一系列挑战——

  • 航空
  • 旅游
  • 零售

“由于阿联酋是一个非常依赖对外开放的经济实体，全球经济复苏对本国经济的复苏至关重要。这场危机源于一场疫情，疫苗的研制是恢复到疫情之前水平的关键。随着国内外逐渐放宽封锁，我们可以看到经济活动从4月的低点开始有所改善。”阿布扎比商业银行首席经济学家Monica Malik说。

即使世博会已被推迟一年，但也需要国际贸易、全球旅行、旅游业和石油来支撑。“这些部门似乎需要更长的时间才能恢复正常化，因为这些部门已经开始裁员。在今年预算赤字更大的情况下，政府支出也可能受到限制。”Tim Fox表示。

石油收入是阿联酋政府的主要收入来源，因此，油价的回升也将增强政府维持高水平、持续性刺激措施的能力，从而有助于经济复苏。

“凭借世界第七大已探明的原油储量，阿联酋将继续在全球能源领域占据主导地位。石油出口约占阿联酋总出口的25％。因此，阿联酋经济复苏不仅与海外贸易和旅游业有关，而且与油价也息息相关。当前的油价回升对阿联酋经济是个好兆头。WTI和布伦特原油价格均较年初及现在的低位上涨了100％。这可能会帮助和支持国内制造业以及中小企业部门的增长。” Valecha补充说。

*本文资料源自gulfnews

117 Replies to “阿联酋经济有望在2022年全面复苏：这将如何影响民众及其支出？”

  2. Simply to follow up on the up-date of this matter on your website and
    would want to let you know how much I prized the
    time you took to write this useful post. Inside the post, you actually spoke regarding how to really handle
    this issue with all ease. It would be my own pleasure to get some more tips from your web
    page and come up to offer other folks what I have learned from you.
    Many thanks for your usual great effort.

    Here is my blog post: Kellee

  4. If some one wishes expert view about blogging after that i suggest him/her to go to see this weblog, Keep up the good work.

    Review my web site: Vi-Alpha

  7. I was curious if you ever considered changing the layout of your website?
    Its very well written; I love what youve got to say.
    But maybe you could a little more in the way of content so people could connect with it better.
    Youve got an awful lot of text for only having one or two images.
    Maybe you could space it out better?

    my website :: http://www.1stanapa.ru

  8. When someone writes an post he/she keeps the plan of a
    user in his/her brain that how a user can understand it.
    Thus that’s why this post is outstdanding. Thanks!

    My web blog; Optimum Keto

  10. Hey there! This is kind of off topic but I need some advice from an established blog.
    Is it very hard to set up your own blog? I’m not very techincal but I can figure
    things out pretty fast. I’m thinking about making my own but
    I’m not sure where to start. Do you have any points
    or suggestions? Many thanks

    Feel free to surf to my website Maxatin Reviews

  22. Wonderful items from you, man. I have be mindful your stuff prior to and you’re just too magnificent.
    I really like what you’ve obtained right here, certainly like what you are saying and the
    best way by which you assert it. You’re making it enjoyable and you still care for to keep it sensible.

    I can’t wait to read far more from you. That is actually a wonderful site.

    My blog post – Peak Flow Male Enhancement Review

  28. Hmm it appears like your website ate my first comment (it was super long) so I
    guess I’ll just sum it up what I wrote and say, I’m thoroughly enjoying your blog.
    I too am an aspiring blog writer but I’m still new to everything.
    Do you have any points for beginner blog writers? I’d really appreciate it.

    my web site :: http://www.meteoritegarden.com

  29. I’ve been exploring for a little for any high-quality articles or blog posts in this kind
    of house . Exploring in Yahoo I ultimately stumbled upon this website.

    Studying this info So i am happy to convey that I have an incredibly
    just right uncanny feeling I discovered exactly what I needed.

    I most indubitably will make sure to do not put out of your mind this web
    site and give it a glance regularly.

    Here is my page; GrownMD CBD Gummies Reviews

  30. Hello i am kavin, its my first occasion to commenting anywhere, when i read this article i thought i could also create comment due to this sensible article.

    My web page … Hyper XXL

  35. Hi colleagues, its impressive post on the topic of educationand fully explained, keep it up all the time.

  37. Post writing is also a fun, if you be familiar with afterward you can write otherwise it
    is complex to write.

    Also visit my blog; Isidro

  38. I would like to thnkx for the efforts you’ve put in writing this website.
    I am hoping the same high-grade blog post from
    you in the upcoming as well. In fact your creative writing skills has inspired me to get
    my own site now. Really the blogging is spreading its wings fast.
    Your write up is a good example of it.

    Take a look at my homepage; Forti Prime Side Effects

  40. We are a group of volunteers and starting a
    new scheme in our community. Your site provided us with useful information to work on. You’ve done a formidable task and our
    whole community shall be thankful to you.

  41. I do not even understand how I stopped up right here, but I
    assumed this post was great. I don’t know who you might be but certainly you are going to a famous blogger if you aren’t already.
    Cheers!

  42. This is a very good tip particularly to those new to the blogosphere.
    Short but very accurate information… Thanks for sharing this one.
    A must read post!

  43. I leave a response when I especially enjoy a post on a site or if I have something to valuable to contribute to
    the discussion. It is a result of the sincerness communicated in the post I browsed.
    And after this post 阿联酋经济有望在2022年全面复苏：这将如何影响民众及其支出？ – 迪拜人.

    I was excited enough to leave a thought 😛 I do have
    2 questions for you if it’s allright. Is it simply me or does it
    give the impression like some of the responses look as if
    they are coming from brain dead people? 😛 And, if you are writing at
    other online social sites, I’d like to keep up with anything fresh you have to post.

    Could you list every one of your shared pages like your Facebook page,
    twitter feed, or linkedin profile?

    Have a look at my webpage – dulichnghean.com

  49. An intriguing discussion is worth comment. I
    think that you should publish more about this subject, it might not be a taboo matter but typically people don’t speak about these topics.
    To the next! Kind regards!!

    Here is my blog :: Molten Keto Review

  52. Do you have a spam problem on this website; I also am
    a blogger, and I was wanting to know your situation; we have created some nice
    methods and we are looking to exchange techniques with others,
    please shoot me an email if interested.

  53. I do believe all of the ideas you have presented to your post.
    They are really convincing and will certainly work. Nonetheless, the
    posts are very quick for newbies. May just you please extend
    them a little from next time? Thank you for the post.

  55. I like what you guys are up too. Such smart work and reporting!
    Keep up the superb works guys I’ve incorporated you guys
    to my blogroll. I think it’ll improve the value of my site :
    ).

    Here is my blog post … Renown CBD Review

  56. Great blog you have got here.. It’s hard to find high-quality writing like yours nowadays.

    I really appreciate people like you! Take care!!

  58. Write more, thats all I have to say. Literally, it seems as though you relied on the video to make your
    point. You obviously know what youre talking about, why throw away your intelligence on just posting videos
    to your site when you could be giving us something informative to read?

    Here is my website; Coastal CBD

  59. We’re a gaggle of volunteers and starting a new scheme in our community.
    Your site provided us with valuable information to work on.
    You have performed a formidable job and our entire neighborhood shall be thankful to you.

    Also visit my web blog: True Keto

  62. I’m not sure why but this site is loading very slow for me.
    Is anyone else having this issue or is it a issue on my end?
    I’ll check back later and see if the problem still exists.

  68. Hey I know this is off topic but I was wondering if you knew of any widgets I
    could add to my blog that automatically tweet my newest twitter updates.
    I’ve been looking for a plug-in like this for quite
    some time and was hoping maybe you would have some experience with something like this.
    Please let me know if you run into anything. I truly enjoy reading
    your blog and I look forward to your new updates.

    my webpage; http://marchegabonais.com/index.php/blog/143002/changes-to-a-diet-and-multiple-sclerosis/

  70. Purely to follow up on the up-date of this subject matter on your
    website and would like to let you know how much I valued the time you took to generate this valuable post.
    Within the post, you really spoke on how to seriously handle this thing with
    all comfort. It would be my personal pleasure to accumulate some more
    tips from your web site and come up to offer other individuals what I discovered from you.
    Thanks for your usual excellent effort.

    Feel free to visit my site … Viking XL Reviews

  72. Hi there just wanted to give you a quick heads up.
    The words in your article seem to be running off the
    screen in Ie. I’m not sure if this is a format issue or something to
    do with web browser compatibility but I figured I’d post to let you know.

    The design and style look great though! Hope you get the problem solved soon. Many thanks

    My site Viking XL Reviews

  73. Excellent goods from you, man. I have understand your stuff previous to and you’re just too excellent.
    I actually like what you’ve acquired here, certainly like
    what you are saying and the way in which you say it.
    You make it enjoyable and you still care for to keep it wise.

    I can’t wait to read much more from you. This is actually a terrific
    site.

    My homepage Eggplant Explosion

  74. Write more, thats all I have to say. Literally, it seems as though you relied
    on the video to make your point. You definitely know what youre talking about, why waste
    your intelligence on just posting videos to your blog when you could be giving us something
    enlightening to read?

    Feel free to visit my website: http://www.goldenanapa.ru/modules.php?name=Your_Account&op=userinfo&username=OuthwaiteAmparo

  80. Hello there, I do believe your blog could possibly be having web browser compatibility
    issues. When I take a look at your website in Safari, it looks fine however,
    if opening in I.E., it’s got some overlapping issues.
    I simply wanted to give you a quick heads up! Aside from that,
    excellent site!

    Also visit my website: Slimingo Keto Pills

  83. Howdy, I do believe your website may be having browser compatibility issues.

    When I take a look at your web site in Safari, it looks fine however when opening in IE, it
    has some overlapping issues. I simply wanted to give you a quick
    heads up! Other than that, excellent website!

    Also visit my web-site: Slimingo Keto Reviews

  90. Hey just wanted to give you a quick heads up. The words in your article seem to be running off the screen in Chrome.
    I’m not sure if this is a format issue or
    something to do with web browser compatibility but I thought I’d post to
    let you know. The design and style look great though!
    Hope you get the problem solved soon. Kudos

    My blog; http://www.hotelforrest.ru

  99. When I initially commented I appear to have clicked on the -Notify me when new comments are
    added- checkbox and from now on every time a comment is added I recieve four emails with the same
    comment. Perhaps there is an easy method you are able to remove me from that service?
    Thanks a lot!

    Here is my site :: Rhino Spark Pills

  100. Wonderful items from you, man. I have consider your stuff
    prior to and you’re just extremely excellent.
    I really like what you have obtained right here, really like what you are stating and
    the way in which wherein you are saying it. You
    are making it enjoyable and you still care for to keep it wise.
    I can not wait to learn far more from you. This is really
    a tremendous web site.

    Feel free to visit my page :: Gorges De Soleil Anti Wrinkle Cream

  107. I like what you guys are up too. Such smart work and reporting!
    Keep up the superb works guys I’ve incorporated you guys to my blogroll.
    I think it’ll improve the value of my web site :).

    Feel free to surf to my page Muama Ryoko Wifi

  108. I like the valuable info you provide in your articles. I’ll bookmark your weblog and check again here frequently.
    I’m quite sure I will learn many new stuff right here!
    Good luck for the next!

  111. I believe this is among the such a lot important info for me.
    And i’m satisfied reading your article. However want to statement on some
    basic things, The web site taste is wonderful, the articles is truly excellent
    :D. Good task, cheers.

    Here is my web-site: Vita Silk Lux

  116. An impressive share! I have just forwarded this onto a friend
    who has been conducting a little research on this.
    And he in fact bought me dinner simply because I stumbled upon it
    for him… lol. So let me reword this…. Thank YOU for the
    meal!! But yeah, thanks for spending the time to talk about this
    matter here on your web page.

  117. Hi colleagues, pleasant paragraph and good urging commented at this place, I am
    in fact enjoying by these.

发表评论

您的电子邮箱地址不会被公开。