阿联酋今年的经济将遭受更大的萎缩，阿联酋央行预计2020年的GDP收缩5.2％。
阿联酋的许多活动场所在3月份关闭，第二季度的情况进一步恶化，导致该季度实际GDP负增长，估计为-7.8%。
由于随后的经济活动将改善，预计2020年非能源国内生产总值收缩4.5％。
第三季度展望
根据央行的报告，第三季度非能源国内生产总值的收缩可能会比较温和，即使遏制住了病毒的传播，该情况在第四季度仍将持续，阿联酋就业人数的下降将对需求产生不利影响。
央行预计第三季度的信贷增长将放缓，此后将开始缓慢复苏。预计房地产价格将在第三季度进一步下降，然后在今年最后一个季度有所回升；就业人数到第二季度末将有所回升，2020年下半年将进一步改善。
报告指出，经济的复苏将取决于政策的支持范围。央行采取的经济支持计划（TESS）以及地方和联邦政府宣布的经济刺激计划很可能会推动非能源经济、房地产价格、就业和信贷的增长，一旦对总体情绪产生积极影响，病毒风险将会得到控制。
通货紧缩
由于房租和燃料价下降，国内需求减弱以及货币升值，非贸易品通货紧缩3.9％，第二季度CPI（居民消费价格指数）的通货紧缩2.3％。
银行存款同比增长5.2％，这归因于GREs（政府相关实体）和私营部门存款的增长，而信贷增长5.8％。
本文资料源自gulfnews
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