一位知名的经济专家表示,新冠疫苗的上市有助于刺激中东国家的经济复苏,但不会成为治愈一切的“灵丹妙药”。
沙特和阿联酋已经开始了疫苗接种计划,而巴林、科威特和阿曼当局也已经批准使用各种Covid-19疫苗。
根据牛津经济研究院(Oxford Economics)《 2020年第四季度中东》报告显示,中东的经济正在缓慢复苏,需要到2022年才会回到危机前的水平。
ICAEW经济顾问、牛津经济学院首席经济学家Scott Livermore在接受《阿拉伯商业》采访时表示:“疫苗不是灵丹妙药……这个消息比我们预计的要早一两个月,这显然释放了积极的信号,但我认为最大的区别在于我们对于复苏的信心和风险平衡……而疫苗有助于使阿联酋和其他国家再次成为旅行目的地。”
根据官方数据,自11月12日以来,从伦敦飞往迪拜的航班预订量增长了112%。本周,迪拜机场首席执行官Paul Griffiths表示,他预计英国和迪拜之间的航空运输量在本月将攀升三分之一。
国际货币基金组织(IMF)在上月的一份报告中预测,今年中东经济将走向低迷——比2008-09年全球金融危机期间还要糟糕得多。
IMF下调了对中东和中亚经济复苏前景的预期值,预计该地区整体经济将萎缩4.1%,比4月份的评估要低1.3个百分点。
Scott Livermore表示,延期一年的迪拜世博会将为阿联酋和迪拜的经济复苏注入新的动力,但他也警告称,想充分享受国际旅行带来的好处,现在还为时过早。
“显然,我认为这(世博会)将是一个刺激明年下半年经济的重要因素——要知道,这可是最初预计要接待2500万人次的雄心勃勃的目标——现在也有一些关于世博会期间,能对GDP贡献1.5%的报告出来,但我认为世博会将很难取得像我们原来预期的那种成功。”
“我认为这对迪拜来说一直很重要。只是也许世博会的重点变成了展示迪拜如何为未来50年做好准备,为后疫情时代做好准备。”
*本文资料源自arabianbusiness
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