本文系作者的一面之词，仅供参考，欢迎指教

我有一个迪拜的朋友，定期关注全球疫情，常常看到别的国家日增迅猛，就说XX国爆了，美国、英国、乃至日本都被他“爆”过了……但无论阿联酋的疫情如何，他从来不说阿联酋“爆”了，或许阿联酋没有到“爆”的时候，又或许他对这片土地爱得深沉。

那么阿联酋（迪拜）的疫情会“爆”么？让我来客观分析。

另外申明一下，我的分析材料除了自己查询外，许多都来自迪拜的各华人群及好友们，感谢TA们为我提供了广阔的信息和素材。

| 阿联酋的疫情现状

在数据上，截止2021年1月20日，阿联酋已经连续9天打破自己的单日新增记录，单日新增攀升至3500+，疫区曲线又开始爬坡。

但许多人都认为阿联酋在数据透明度上有所争议，毕竟之前也闹出过不少乌龙了。在数据之外，不妨也多感受一下身边的经验。比如我在迪拜的许多朋友已经开始发现身边不断有人陆续确诊，涉及各行各业，也包括华人群体，甚至有证据表明越来越多的学校也相继出现确诊病例。

数据结合经验，我们可以认为，病毒正在离我们越来越近。

或许有人觉得对比欧洲每日新增好几万的数据，阿联酋每日3000+的病例也不算严重。比如德国前阵子每日新增20000+病例，是阿联酋的7倍。但要知道，德国人口8200万，是阿联酋的8倍。从新增确诊的人口比例来看，阿联酋与德国是不相伯仲的。

如今，阿联酋的疫情虽然不如英国、美国这般狂妄肆虐，但也绝对无法轻松地说没有大碍。

| “开放”下的危机

大家基本都认同阿联酋的“过度开放”是这一波疫情恶化的罪魁祸首。

虽然阿联酋在5月份就已经实施逐步的开放政策，但在当时“恢复正常生活”几乎是全球性的意愿。而冬季在英国发现的变异病毒大杀四方，随即凶猛的第二波疫情席卷全球，各国才发现 —— 事情不妙！

曾经秉持开放的许多国家也开始陆续收紧政策，实施更严格的限制性措施。在这样的环境下，阿联酋尤其迪拜依然实施“大开放”的政策，敞开怀抱接纳来自世界各国的游客，其中不乏像英国、俄罗斯这样的重点疫情国，或者说他们才是迪拜这个冬季的重点游客来源。

与此同时，阿联酋与以色列的互相开放也在这一时期大大增加了以色列游客的到来，而以色列的疫情也同样不乐观。即便有核酸检测的要求，但仅检测误差率就足够让防疫工作吃尽苦头。

新冠可能是人类历史上对抗过的最狡猾的病毒

在圣诞及跨年双节期间，迪拜成为少数接纳英国及欧洲游客的旅游目的地，蜂拥而至的游客，让惨淡了一整年的旅游市场重唤新枝，酒店爆满，商场全是人，跨年夜更是迎来民众的狂欢，曾经惨兮兮的阿联酋航空，其业务量也恢复到疫情前的3/4左右……迪拜的生活仿佛从疫情中恢复如初，但事实上疫情并没有好转，反而还愈演愈烈。

节庆的狂欢和突增的病例，这条因果链是很明显的。就如大家所预见的一样，之后的1月，阿联酋的疫情开始急转直下。

至今，迪拜依然将自己宣传为疫情下的避风港，定位在服务那些“想要逃离封锁禁和寒冬”的游客。这给了迪拜商业上的喘息，但也给了疫情发展的机会。

| “对”与“错”

迪拜“大开放”的做法究竟是“对”还是“错”，相信每个人都有自己的角度。不少国人认为迪拜应该像中国学习，致力于严防死打。而我个人倾向于 —— 对迪拜来说，“大开放”或许才是理性的策略。

一方面冬季是新冠病毒的主场，而且还变异出更强的版本了，它们已经在全球打出了一波小高潮，不仅KO了欧洲和北美大陆，连固若金汤的中国也开始出现多地确诊的状况。病毒如此来势汹汹，我们不能奢望迪拜能在这种大环境下独善其身。

另一方面，作为外向经济体，又没有阿布扎比的金元护体，迪拜的脆弱性显然是无法做到与世界阻断联系的 —— 经济是迪拜的“命”。病毒不一定会造成一个人的死亡，但恶劣的经济一定会造成一座城市的浩劫。与其通过封锁换来慢性死亡，不如逆市而行趁此获取一波红利，再谋求其他办法。

迪拜有许多理由可以支持他的开放决策。比如独特的人口结构 —— 整个阿联酋是一个年轻化的社会，相对高危的老年人所占比例极少，60岁以上人口仅占2%，我想这是阿联酋保持极低死亡率的重要依据，阿联酋的死亡率不到0.3%，远低于世界平均值。

阿联酋的人口结构，中青年人是绝对主力

这样的人口结构使得阿联酋的确诊病例大多是轻症和无症状者，在家隔离即可康复，产生危重症患者的几率变低，给医疗的压力也会小很多。一般来说，只要医疗不”爆”，疫情也不太会产生“爆”的感觉。

何况，迪拜此时还抓住了另一根救命稻草 —— 疫苗。

| “梭哈”疫苗

疫苗绝对是近期阿联酋的关键词，几乎每天都有产生和疫苗相关的新闻。

阿联酋早在6月就开始与中国国药开展疫苗的三期试验。迪拜酋长在11月亲自上阵接种，为国药疫苗打Call。12月初，阿联酋启动俄罗斯疫苗的三期试验，同月正式批准国药疫苗上市，并免费为居民接种，阿联酋华人可以比国内大部分人更快接种上这款中国疫苗。同样在12月，辉瑞疫苗也在阿联酋批准上市。

阿联酋一名97岁的老人打疫苗被媒体广为宣传

“老夫都打了，你们还怂什么？”

很快，截止到1月19日，阿联酋已经分发了超过200万剂的新冠疫苗，而阿联酋的总人口还不到1000万。在全球“每百人接种率”阿联酋仅次于以色列位居世界第二。在疫苗供应方面，阿联酋则位居世界第五。

世界“每百人疫苗接种率”国家排名,更新至1.19

虽然接种率略次于以色列，但阿联酋也呈现即将超越的追赶之势，永争第一的劲头又开始上脑。而相对以色列只接种辉瑞疫苗，阿联酋对疫苗的选择更加包容，不仅包含中国的国药和美国的辉瑞，俄罗斯的疫苗也在测试中，相信未来还会有更多疫苗加入，为居民提供更丰富的疫苗选择。

阿联酋对外高调宣传自己“疫苗护国”的壮举，对内也采取了支持疫苗接种的诸多政策。不仅领导人亲自呼吁民众去打疫苗，更是颁布了“对未接种疫苗的部分人员进行强制检测”的规定。言下之意就是说一些阿联酋居民如果现在不打疫苗，未来可能生活工作都要受到影响。这使得许多即使对疫苗不信任的民众，也不得不参与疫苗的接种。

可以说，目前阿联酋是世界上对“打疫苗”这件事最上心的国家。疫情数据的多寡已经不是重点，重点是打了多少疫苗。疫苗也成为迪拜对冲“开放性风险”的一个利器，或者说“正当理由”。甚至还能在未来推出“疫苗旅游”的新概念而进一步促进旅游发展。而英国已经开辟了以去迪拜打疫苗为主题的旅游线路。

一位卫生部门的高级官员表示，在三月之前阿联酋有望为50%的人口接种疫苗。有观点认为，群体中有60%的人拥有了抗体，就可被视为获得群体免疫。这么看来，阿联酋可能会成为全球首个通过疫苗获得群体免疫的国家。

这一把，阿联酋（迪拜）梭哈了疫苗。但前提是，疫苗能真的给力。

| 完美的“试验场”

虽然疫苗的接种如火如荼，但目前还没有人能对任何一种的疫苗的效果言之确凿，疫苗的真正实力还有待更多科学及临床验证。

但阿联酋的这一把梭哈，将使其成为最完美的疫苗“试验场”。

一来阿联酋有着囊括了世界上200多个国家及民族的人口结构，可以将疫苗对不同人种的研究更好地纳入考量。同时阿联酋的人口适中，能更加迅速地进行疫苗普及。再来阿联酋同时进行着多款疫苗的接种工作，能更好地横向评估不同疫苗的效果。

如果疫苗有效，那么压对宝的阿联酋无疑将收获重大利好，参与了一场全人类的胜利。如果疫苗的效果不尽人意，那也只能躺平接受命运的审判了。但无论结果如何，世界都会感谢阿联酋提供的宝贵数据。

至于打国药还是打辉瑞还是啥都不打？我认为这是个人自由，不应当上升到观点之争。但我个人是支持国药的。

| 所以，迪拜的疫情会“爆”么？

我认为在迪拜持续开放的条件下，数据还会有一段时间的爬坡，直到疫苗发挥作用。哪怕疫苗最后没有发挥作用，我认为阿联酋也不太会出现医疗崩溃死亡率飙升的严重事态，除非变异出超级病毒。

当然，我们依然无法评估新冠病毒会对我们的身体和生活带来怎样的影响，即使痊愈，我们也不知道它会带来怎样的潜在副作用。无论如何，我们都不应该以身试险。

还是那句话，我们无法左右政策的决定和大环境的走向，但我们可以左右自己的行动。无论你是否已经接种了疫苗，不松懈地做好防护，注意消毒，减少外出，避开人流依然是日常中重要的小事。

只要不点炮，迪拜不会“爆”。

 – End – 

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  75. 哈哈，居然还有人相信迪拜这个假土豪的确诊数据的，呵呵，真实数据早爆表了，你看看它每天就加个二十几个，真以为别人不知道它造假哟，呵呵，而且本身它就是个君主专制世袭制酋长国，信息都是不透明的，疫情通报也是搞来耍，完全就是抗疫失败的典型代表，还好意思到处吹牛什么抗疫成功，呵呵，迪拜王室会付出代价的，呵呵，以为现在赚点游客钱，呵呵，倒霉日子刚刚开始而已。

  76. 不是不会爆，而是已经爆了，迪拜当局确诊数据一直造假，而且基本上不通报哪里确诊了，完全都是黑箱操作，人家以色列都暂停和阿联酋的免签了，就是因为从阿联酋出来的一堆人都确诊，吓死人。迪拜这个假土豪以为冬季打开大门欢迎来旅游而不顾疫情后果赚大钱，完全是短视的，很多国家都把阿联酋当大规模病毒输出地了，坏日子在后头。

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