本文系作者的一面之词，仅供参考，欢迎指教


| 阿联酋的疫情现状

几乎每隔几天，就有网友咨询我迪拜的疫情的情况 —— “迪拜的疫情严重么？”

基本上，阿联酋疫情的真实情况一直以来都让人感到扑朔迷离，疫情在阿联酋的表现更像是一只薛定谔的猫，处于“挺严重”和“没啥事儿”量子叠加态。这取决于你的观测。

如果你观测的是数据。阿联酋如今每日新增在2000上下浮动，这个数据对疫情大国来说只是小case，但对中国这种超强防御国来说就蛮吓人了。如何看待疫情严重程度，本身就是一个见仁见智的事。目前这个数据态势已经飘了大半年了，只要不出现跳跃式突增，基本上老百姓（乃至官方）的状态是麻木的。

如果你观测的是数据以外的报道，那么或许还能发现一些其他的蛛丝马迹。

比如最近的国足变更场地来阿联酋比赛的事儿。国足的对手叙利亚和马尔代夫球员在本国的核酸报告还是阴性，结果才来迪拜训练了一个礼拜，就“阳”了，进不了中国比赛，这才把场地换到阿联酋来。

比如阿联酋飞国内的航班熔断已经是家常便饭了，采用苛刻的双检回国都能班班有确诊。目前阿联酋已经是中国境外输入病例的第五大来源国，总共输出了196例（更新至6月10日）。排阿联酋前面的分别是俄罗斯、美国、英国和菲律宾，都是现在或曾经的疫情大国，每一个数据面都远远超出阿联酋一大截，想一想阿联酋何德何能挤进前五吧。

截图自 凤凰网境外输入实时动态

比如被自家养的毒株打趴下的印度，那么迪拜和印度是什么关系？—— 基本就是远房二大舅的关系。在印度被针对前早已有大批印度人逃离至迪拜，可神奇的是阿联酋至今未宣布本地有发现印度毒株（1月份发现英国变异毒株的时候可是官宣的呐~）

比如英国已经把阿联酋列为红色疫情国家名单，甚至连菲律宾也开始禁止阿联酋游客……

比如邻国巴林，无论国情、人员结构乃至疫苗接种率都和阿联酋相当，为什么人家疫情前阵子突然严重起来；比如邻国阿曼为什么又封城了；比如阿布扎比至今还在执行严格的入城防疫措施，防的是谁大家也可以想一想……

比如发生在你身边越来越多确诊的朋友、邻居或熟人，以及越来越多并非空穴来风的道听途说……

来，大家见仁见智吧。


| 关于疫苗

阿联酋很早开始就梭哈了疫苗，选择了经济大开放。即便如此，阿联酋的每日确诊数依然在稳定浮动，并未出现显而易见的下滑。但我们不能说疫苗无用，考虑到这边的宽松的旅行限制和防疫措施、民众放飞自我的心态和周边愈演愈烈的疫情状况，都大大对冲了疫苗的效果。

因此并不是疫苗无用，而是“猪队友”太拉跨，如果没有疫苗的加持，可能阿联酋的疫情会比现在糟糕得多。

另一方面，阿联酋的患者大多数为无症状，这个从阿联酋回国境外输入数据可见一斑，报出来的无症状比例远高于确诊（有症状）比例。同时，阿联酋的死亡率也一直很低。这或许和本地较为年轻的人口结构有关，但我认为疫苗在其中也发生着较为重要的作用。毕竟笔者近期知晓的几个发展成重症的同胞，都是没有接种疫苗的，而打了疫苗的朋友哪怕感染了往往也能较快地恢复，在防重症化上，疫苗的效果还是不错的（但这不是绝对的，杠精勿扰）。

无症状化和低死亡率，千万不要小看这两个优势，这能极大地缓解医疗压力。无论是当年的武汉还是现在的印度，压垮最后一根稻草的并非病毒本身，而是医疗的爆仓。

还是那句话 —— 只要医疗不“爆”，迪拜就不会“爆”。

只是不怕敌行动，就怕敌变异，显然阿联酋新一波的疫情压力来自更强大的印度变异毒株。

目前阿联酋已经支持国药和辉瑞两种疫苗的混打了，并批准了更多疫苗更大范围的使用，这片土地或将成为疫苗联军 VS 变异毒株的前线战场，并为全球带来最新的数据和战果。或许在疫情的终章，我们都应当感谢阿联酋做出的贡献。


| 后疫情下的迪拜经济

我在此前不少文章都讲过，作为外向经济体，经济是迪拜的“命”。与其通过封锁换来慢性死亡，不如逆市而行趁此获取一波红利，而梭哈疫苗更是给这种选择一个正当理由。

但经济大开放不能光自己开放，只有在全球都逐渐开放的前提下，迪拜的开放才有意义。在去年迪拜大开放的初期，基于全球对疫情的恐慌，大开放策略并未换来相应的回报，但随着全球对疫情的逐渐麻木和常态化，各国防疫政策的宽松化，以及民众对自由的强烈愿望，坚持大开放的迪拜现在才嗅到了一丝经济复苏的气息。

迪拜几乎是目前出入境政策最宽松的旅游目的地之一，在饥渴的人们有限的出游选择中，敞开怀抱的迪拜正在闪闪发光。在2020-2021年的旅游旺季，迪拜已经迎来了一波又一波的旅游小高潮，虽然总体不如疫情前，但也算恢复了几层元气。如今大多迪拜人已经卸下了沉重的心理包袱，该吃吃该喝喝，娱乐生活基本恢复如初。

另一方面，随着病毒的变异和强化，对病毒的恐慌又开始逐渐笼罩全球。单从数据面考量，阿联酋每日2000左右的新增病例虽比上不足，但比下有余，国家本身也在极力打造“疫苗旅游”和“疫情避风港”的人设，这又吸引了一波“怕死”的有钱人。尤其是欧洲和印度，为了躲避疫情在本国带来的负面效果，而来迪拜投资及生活，随之带来的，是滚烫烫的热钱。

笔者之前写过一篇关于迪拜热钱的文章欢迎点击阅读↓
《客观分析 “疫情下的迪拜如何逆风翻盘”》

话说回来，迪拜总是有这样的魔力，每当我们觉得迪拜快不行的时候，周边总能发生点什么，救迪于水火。这种感觉就像08-09年的金融危机，迪拜已经颓得不行，结果阿拉伯之春革命之火燃起，周边的动荡导致大量热钱涌入，迪拜没几年就缓过劲儿了。这一波因为疫情这把火，也上演了类似的戏码。

尤其是把迪拜视为第二故乡的印度，本国已经水生火热堪比人间炼狱，秉着满满的求生欲，在禁航前就已经有大批印度人逃离至迪拜。此后迪拜虽然停了印度航班，但对于来自印度的私人包机依然不设限制，这符合迪拜一贯以来对高净值人士的渴望。这些印度的财富阶层，带来了钱，带来了人，也带来了不可忽视的“风险”。

热钱一般会流到哪里？—— 几乎必然是房地产。最近迪拜的房地产市场盛况空前，其5月的交易额甚至创下了四年来的新高，比疫情前还要火爆。

然而这一波红利主要是基于外部热钱的短期输入，并非全社会阶层的经济活动。我咨询了几位迪拜做房地产的朋友，他们表示对比前两年，迪拜现在的高端别墅涨幅超40%，高端公寓涨幅超20%，但中低端的公寓涨幅较少或几乎没有涨幅（而早前一阵子还出现过别墅涨公寓跌的行情）。这让目前迪拜的经济呈现出一种割裂的神奇态势，一些服务于富人的高端行业赚得满盆彩，一些常规端行业却依然饱受失业和低收入的煎熬。我们可以从迪拜越来越多的偷窃抢劫等治安事件侧面了解底层的焦虑。

另外原先的高端金饭碗也不好过
比如失业的阿航机长都开始去“卖肉”了~

即便迪拜楼市火爆，但这一波热度只能属于“去库存”的范畴，开发商对开发新楼盘的动力依旧不足。相比“复苏”这个词，不如说是基于短期热钱的“回血”来得更合适一点。

如何把热钱转化为可持续发展的动力，需要天时地利人和，还有领导人的智慧，否则热钱也将带来新的诅咒。

阿联酋并非铁板一块，知道要想获得可持续发展，留住人，尤其留住企业家至关重要。一方面阿联酋大大削弱了长久以来的“保人制”，同时加大对企业经营的利好政策。另一方面进一步放宽对五年十年黄金签证的准入门槛，将来大家可能会发现越来越多的中国人获得了黄金签证。只是这一系列操作到底能换回多大的成效，只能让时间说话了。

至于被寄予厚望的，迪拜的翻身之作 —— 迪拜世博会，预计十月份要开，但从目前的全球形势看，变数太大，还是不要对此抱有过多期待了。即便能如期开放，大概率也会变成一场内循环“游戏”，又或许“地球村”能换一个更大的场地了。

瘦死的骆驼比马大，对于未来，我认为只要迪拜能维系住中东最摩登最开放最好玩的地位，形势就不会太糟糕。目前区域内迪拜最大的竞争对手反而是阿布扎比，虽然同属一国但都有各自的小九九。不过对于打工人来说，赚的钱都叫“迪拉姆”，金主爸爸姓迪还是姓阿布不重要。


| 警惕繁荣的“假象”

这一年多来，随着“种菠菜的人”陆续到来，迪拜华人圈层的结构发生了巨大的变化，从而进一步影响到华人的生活、工作、收入乃至意识形态。这也使得迪拜华人所感受到的迪拜经济，和外国人所感受到的迪拜经济又会有所不同，能在凌冽的寒风中，躲进一个肥皂泡里获得喘息。

“种菠菜的人”同样带来了热钱，但从宏观上来说，他们的热钱并不对迪拜经济起到决定性作用，但这笔热钱却能在一个相对封闭的池塘里掀起风浪，面向华人形成了一个新的风口。这个风口不像它的前辈——90年代的“贸易风口”和2010年后的“旅游风口”——是基于时代背景下的经济活动而涌现的大量机会。这个风口是被人为制造出来的畸形产物，一个充满贪嗔痴的欲望黑洞。

一方面，“菠菜”在本地制造了诸多社会问题和负面影响。另一方面，姑且不做道德判断，他们也确实在大萧条下解决了许多原生迪拜华人的生存问题，甚至为不少原生华人创造了比疫情前更多的财富。

不过随着国内大范围的反诈普及，中阿两国打击跨国犯罪的合作，以及这个特殊行业本身的自限性，基本可以预见“菠菜”正在走向末路。

我们不仅应当警惕当下繁荣的“假象”，也要未雨绸缪 —— 当肥皂泡破灭时，该如何重新启程。

55 Replies to “客观分析 | 后疫情时代，迪拜现在怎么样了？”

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